Foresight instead of forecasting: why the future does not lie in Excel

Was ist Strategic Foresight und wie unterscheidet sich das von klassischer Strategieberatung?

Susan Shaw: Strategic Foresight geht einen Schritt weiter. Wir bewegen uns in eine hypothetische Zukunft, in der es noch keine Zahlen, Daten und Fakten zum analysieren gibt. Wir verlassen die gängigen Prognosen und Excel-Tabellen und ergründen langfristige Entwicklungen und deren mögliche Implikationen. Wohin führen diese Entwicklungen? Was bedeutet das beispielsweise für die Kundschaft der Unternehmen und was müssen sie bereits heute tun, damit sie diese Bedürfnisse in Zukunft bedienen können?

Camille Zimmermann: Traditional strategy consulting is based on a heavily internal perspective and analyses the current assets of a company to provide a possible answer on this basis. We are focussing much more heavily on analysis of the environment. We lead our clients through the foresight process and empower them to ask the right questions.

Do companies need to put their forecasts aside when looking to the future?

Susan Shaw: In general terms, we all like to cling to verifiable data because it provides a supposed sense of security. The problem is that while facts and figures are very useful in the present, they lose their value in the future – particularly in times of greater uncertainty. Foresight then becomes more relevant because we identify areas of opportunity and set the course for the future on that basis.

The GDI has developed 'Major Shifts' as a basis for determining such areas of opportunity. So what are their key attributes?

Susan Shaw: Unlike trends, Major Shifts show the way forward into the future rather than indicating an isolated situation at an arbitrary point in a few years' time. They describe fact-based, long-term developments and their origins in the past. This also allows us to understand what may spur on or hold back a shift. 

Camille Zimmermann: When working with the GDI's framework, you see immediately that it's inspired but also very clear. Incorporating the shifts into the context of a company ensures the right questions are asked from the outset, enabling a rapid transfer to strategic implications. Without any buzzwords or hype, but instead adopting a composed, verifiable and clear approach.

How does the transfer from major shifts to strategic decision-making work?

Camille Zimmermann: This is based on one or more of the GDI Major Shifts. Even before carrying out an evaluation, we adopt the company perspective on the second level. In collaboration with GDI Research, we determine specific, hypothetical implications from the relevant shifts for the company and assess, for example, their relevance for the company, potential opportunities and the risks of this possible scenario. Thinking from this future perspective, we explore questions for the company: what effects will this have on the business? What impact will it have on their services or products? And on their customers? In this way, we identify new areas of opportunity and create a basis for strategic decision-making in the present.

Could you provide an example?

Susan Shaw: he infrastructuralisation of AI is a shift that many companies are currently dealing with. Large administrations performing many administrative tasks in particular are contemplating what it will mean when AI is incorporated into our everyday lives as naturally as electricity or water. One implication of this shift for such organisations is, for example, a reduction in bureaucracy. This may completely change the company's understanding of its role. It could free up capacity that can then be redeployed elsewhere.  

How do companies recognise their need for foresight?

Susan Shaw: Taking a look at the current figures often provides a good indication. For example, if market share is dwindling, sales figures are falling or new competitors can meet customer needs in a more targeted manner. Established firms often come under pressure due to new technology or a shift in values amongst the target group.

Camille Zimmermann: It is usually worth investing in the future before the air gets too thin. For example, when you've reached market saturation point. But there's rarely a perfect time to do so. If the company is in too comfortable a situation, it may lack the courage to change and if it is already in survival mode, it usually lacks the resources anyway. My experience in lean management shows that companies should introduce new approaches while their day-to-day operations are still hectic. This is the only way to establish a new process in the long term – and that is exactly what Strategic Foresight does.

What's your role in the foresight process?

Camille Zimmermann: We pilot the process for our customers using appropriate methods and workshops. We work closely with the company's project team by making sure they consider potential shifts too. Our role is to adopt an external perspective and challenge the company's self-image. This means that we do not act as traditional consultants who present solutions, but instead we are enablers who assist companies in their decision-making process. 

Is this the new way of imparting knowledge?

Susan Shaw: Absolut. Absolutely. We live in an age that has incredibly fast and comprehensive access to knowledge. Our customers are increasingly looking for guidance, focus, prioritisation and clear decision-making tools. This is exactly where we come in – with in-depth knowledge still forming the basis. We translate this individually for companies to enable them to apply it strategically.

What are your expectations of your customers?

Both: Committed stakeholders who are not afraid to contemplate bold opportunities. Even if these are not incorporated directly into the strategy, they define the framework and often provide greater clarity and focus.