The following text is based on an extract from the trend report "The Next Normal – Consumer Behaviour After Covid-19", which you can obtain from our website.
The Corona crisis has hit the economy hard. Gigantic economic stimulus packages are being launched worldwide. The European Union and its member states alone are investing 3.9 trillion euros in the economy.
But no one knows exactly how the recession will unfold, which will be the most severe since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In its trend report "The Next Normal", the GDI presents six possible courses of events:
According to Carmen Reichhart, Chief Economist of the World Bank, a W-shaped course is not so unlikely, as a second wave is always a possibility as long as no vaccine is available.
This economic shock "has disrupted supply chains globally and trade big-time. The World Trade Organization tells you trade can decline anywhere between 13% and 32%. I don’t think you just break and re-create supply chains at the drop of a hat," Reichhart said.
But who will emerge from this crisis as a winner? The retail and cultural sectors will not. Due to Corona-related restrictions, restaurants, cinemas and theatres remained closed and can reopen only under conditions that are sometimes not profitable. "How do we know which retailers are going to come back? Which restaurants are going to come back? Cinemas?", Carmen Reichhart asks. Travel companies and airlines also emerge as clear losers.
The winner is certainly the delivery sector. Whether online shopping, food delivery or the delivery offers of supermarkets. Spending on food, especially online food, has risen sharply since people have been staying at home and cooking more often:Consumer Behaviour and Covid-19: Stage 1 "The Crisis"
83 PDF-SlidesSix topics: how cities will change after the Covid 19 lockdown
In cities, proximity prevails, but the pandemic requires physical distance. How can this dilemma be solved? And how will the public space change? GDI researcher Marta Kwiatkowski identifies six topics that will shape the post-coronavirus city.Klarna – how ‘hip’ can a payment provider be?
If there were winners during the coronavirus lockdown, they were e-commerce platforms and their ecosystems. Klarna is one of these winners. In a video and at the GDI Retail Summit, Klarna’s CMO David Sandström explains what it would look like if Gucci was a payment provider.Future Skills: The "Collapse" scenario
What if the known society is gone in the year 2050? What should we be capable of?