1. Polycrisis: cascading crises in a connected world
Polycrises emerge from the increasing global interconnectedness of social, geopolitical, economic, technological and environmental developments. This intensifies crisis dynamics, gives local events global reach and increases unpredictability. The past few years have shown just how quickly such interconnections can amplify crisis dynamics. The war in Ukraine has affected food and energy prices, supply chains and geopolitical dynamics far beyond Europe.
Much suggests that the polycrises of recent years may be only a foretaste of the complexity and interconnectedness of future crisis situations. Responding to this shift requires decision-makers to systematically account for interactions, feedback loops and second-order effects.. In recent years, these developments have often been addressed through concepts of resilience and through economic and political strategies of de-risking. While these approaches create buffers and reduce risks, they cannot fully address the structural challenges of a highly interconnected world.
Interconnectedness also creates opportunities. For 2026, it is worth considering the counterpart to polycrisis, what we refer to as polyemergence. It describes the simultaneous emergence and synergistic spread of positive dynamics that can reinforce one another across multiple levels.A prime example is the rapid global expansion of photovoltaics, which has evolved from a space technology, through climate policy-driven use, into a globally competitive energy source.Polyemergence underscores the significant potential of global cooperation and interconnected adaptation in addressing the major challenges of the years ahead.
2. Circularity: moving from pilots to scale
Circularity describes a fundamental shift in how products, materials and resources are designed and used. It extends far beyond recycling and encompasses durable design, repairability, reuse models, material substitution and regenerative value creation. While circularity has long been seen as a vision for a more sustainable future, there are growing signs that 2026 could mark a transition from pilot projects to scalable implementation. Companies across sectors such as furniture, fashion, and consumer goods, from IKEA and H&M to Nestlé, are sharpening their targets, investing in take-back systems and developing circular materials and packaging.
At the same time, the EU is preparing a regulatory framework through the Circular Economy Act that, from 2026 onwards, is intended to lay the foundation for a genuine internal market for secondary raw materials and significantly advance the recovery of critical raw materials in areas such as electronics and batteries. New instruments such as the Digital Product Passport, which provides information on materials, repair and recycling, are expected to further accelerate this transition.
Circularity is moving beyond an environmental feel-good topic to become an economic and strategic factor. At the same time, it is clear that this shift is demanding. Circularity is not a shortcut to sustainability, but requires profound changes in design, production, consumption and infrastructure. This is precisely where its significance lies, as it not only reshapes how resources are used, but also how value creation is rethought across design, production and use.
3. The infrastructuralisation of AI: invisible systems, tangible effects
In 2025, a majority in Switzerland actively used AI applications. Chatbots and copilots made generative AI part of everyday life. For 2026, the next phase is coming into view. AI is increasingly being integrated into physical, digital and institutional infrastructures, often operating invisibly yet shaping decisions and processes. This shift becomes evident in systems that no longer simply follow predefined rules, but can sense changing conditions, interpret them and respond in context-dependent ways.
In urban infrastructure, AI is being embedded in traffic management, energy distribution and water systems to stabilize systems in real time and improve efficiency. In industry, the use of AI is also reshaping production: manufacturing systems are becoming more adaptive, maintenance more predictive and processes continuously optimized. Similar developments can be observed in medical technology, where AI is becoming an integral part of diagnostic devices, clinical decision support and hospital logistics, operating in the background of critical infrastructure systems.
In 2026, the focus is likely to shift away from which language model is the most powerful. The more important factor will be where AI adds real value and makes systems more robust, efficient and manageable. At the same time, widespread integration also entails risks. As AI becomes embedded in the operating systems of our societies, efficiency gains are multiplied, but so too are potential sources of error, dependencies and systemic vulnerabilities. For this very reason, the infrastructuralization of AI marks a structural turning point where the benefits and risks of the technology become increasingly apparent.
4. Global warming: still there
In 2025, the issue of global warming became strikingly quiet in public debate. Not because it had lost relevance, but because other crises grew louder. Geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, economic uncertainty and political polarization pushed the defining environmental issue of our time largely out of view. It began to seem as if climate change could be postponed or simply ignored. For 2026, a shift in perspective is warranted. Not because the coming year will necessarily be more extreme than others, but because global warming does not recede simply because short-term crises dominate attention.
The impacts of climate change persist regardless of business cycles, election campaigns or geopolitical escalations. They manifest, among other things, in water scarcity, crop failures and mounting economic damage, cumulatively and over the long term, with consequences that are difficult to reverse, if at all. As a Major Shift, global warming stands for a lasting change in the conditions under which societies operate. Precisely because it appeared to fade into the background in 2025, it needs to be brought back into strategic decision-making in 2026. Not as a short-term alarm, but as a long-term reality whose effects will shape almost all other developments. In a world of limited and weakening global coordination and binding commitment, engaging seriously with the consequences of global warming therefore remains essential, regardless of where society stands on questions of prevention and mitigation.