Architecture of change – shifts that will shape our future

The GDI Major Shifts framework describes 20 developments across the five dimensions of society, geopolitics, economy, technology and ecology. Why these five in particular?

Joschka Proksik: They are, in a sense, the basic axes that structure our world — how we live together, how power is distributed globally, how we do business, which technologies shape our lives and how we relate to the natural environment. At the same time, these are the central force fields that shape the trajectory of our future.

How did you ensure the topics included are actually relevant?

Joschka Proksik: At the beginning, we closely examined a wide range of developments, explored their origins and grouped them into clusters. To be included in our framework, each development had to meet four key criteria. First, they must be empirically verifiable. Second, they need to persist over a longer time horizon and show a clear developmental trajectory, which means that short-lived trends or hypes are excluded. Third, each of the 20 shifts must have a systemic or structural impact on markets, politics and society. Fourth, it was important to us that these developments exert influence that extends beyond their respective dimension. This cross-dimensional impact often results from the interplay among the developments, allowing us to capture the complexity of the world more accurately.

Does that mean the shifts can't be analysed individually?

Joschka Proksik: Yes, they can, but in our highly complex, globally interconnected world, few developments happen in isolation. For long-term planning, it is vitally important to monitor major developments and structural changes as a whole. Only then do patterns and interdependencies become visible — for example how a technological breakthrough can alter the balance of political power or how the climate crisis can reshape economic models. You simply do not see this with a collection of isolated megatrends.

Are trends outmoded then?

Joschka Proksik: In my view, trends serve more as short-term indicators. They often only reflect what is unfolding at the moment. The GDI Major Shifts reveal where developments are heading, which paradigms are shifting and what implications this may have for other areas. Anyone who engages with the Shifts will quickly recognise tensions as well as synergies. So in other words, how shifts can strengthen or weaken one another.

Can you provide an example of interaction between shifts?

Joschka Proksik: When the economic environment and technological advances enable the switch to clean energy and circular production, this will have a direct impact on climate change, resource availability or water stress. Through such feedback loops, the shifts can reinforce or weaken one another. This growing interaction between shifts represents a profound change in itself which is described in the Major Shifts 'hyperconnectivity' and 'Polycrisis', with the latter highlighting the negative forms of such feedback dynamics.

Which shifts are of particular relevance right now?

Joschka Proksik: All of them (laughs). But of course there are phases during which certain thematic issues shape present events more strongly than others. At the moment, this applies above all to the geopolitical sphere. We are in a transition toward a multipolar international system that is still dominated by two major power poles yet is increasingly influenced by additional autonomous actors. This is reshaping the rules of global politics and the economy — power centres are shifting, new alliances are being forged and the established international order is becoming unstable. This creates uncertainty, but it also generates new momentum.

Another good example is the shift 'Water Stress'. The growing scarcity and uneven regional availability of water resources is nothing new, but it is becoming ever more urgent. Water is turning into an increasingly contested resource globally and is already giving rise to new tensions, most recently around the Indus water system between India and Pakistan or around the Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia. Even regions long considered unaffected are now feeling the effects of water scarcity, including parts of Europe where droughts are causing mounting damage, especially in the Mediterranean.

And what about AI?

Joschka Proksik: The 'Infrastructuralisation of AI' represents a Major Shift that is increasingly reshaping our world, as AI penetrates ever more deeply into central domains of life, from urban infrastructure and medical technology to agriculture, industrial manufacturing and modern security and military technologies. This is why AI also has profound effects on several other Major Shifts. One area where this is particularly noticeable is in ‘Automated Media Systems’. AI-based systems are increasingly determining what we see, what we talk about and ultimately how we make decisions. This will also be a key theme of our next European Trend Day at the GDI, where we will explore how we can reclaim our focus amidst the deluge of information and how to regain attention through meaningful content. 

How do you translate these shifts for companies?

Joschka Proksik: Working closely with the GDI's Strategic Foresight Team, we examine which shifts are of particular relevance to the industry and strategic environment of the company concerned. In doing so, we provide an external perspective to detect potential blind spots. We then determine the effects of the individual shifts, which forces may drive or weaken them in the future and the ways in which they may affect the specific company. This enables us to create flexible future scenarios as part of the foresight process that clearly define the decision-making context for the company.

What fascinates you most about working on the GDI Major Shifts?

Joschka Proksik: The incredibly broad spectrum of topics covered by the framework's holistic approach. Based on our empirical observations, we often infer certain links and interactions between the shifts and challenges facing the economy and companies, and we can sometimes observe how these actually materialise. Such moments are always rewarding and a confirmation of the analytical robustness and practical applicability of our framework.