Architecture of change – shifts that will shape our future

The GDI Major Shifts framework describes 20 developments in the five dimensions of society, geopolitics, economy, technology and ecology. So why these five dimensions in particular?

Joschka Proksik: To some extent, they represent the key axes around which our world revolves. What I mean by that is how people co-exist, how power is distributed globally, how we do business, which technologies influence us and what our relationship with the natural environment is like. They are also the main force fields through which our future is actually moving.

How did you ensure the topics included are actually relevant?

Joschka Proksik: To start off with, we analysed a large number of developments in depth, looked at their past and grouped them into clusters. Four key criteria had to be met for developments to be included in our framework. Firstly, they must be empirically verifiable. Secondly, they must exist over a long period of time and show a clear development history. They must not constitute short-term hype. Thirdly, each of the 20 shifts has a systemic or structural impact on markets, politics and society. Fourthly, all of the developments must have an impact beyond their respective dimension. This overarching impact is often the result of mutual interaction. This enables us to better reflect the complexity of the world.

Does that mean the shifts can't be analysed individually?

Joschka Proksik: Yes, they can, but in our highly complex, globally interconnected world, few developments happen in isolation. In terms of long-term planning, it is vitally important to monitor major developments and structural changes from a broader perspective. This is the only way that patterns and interactions can be successfully mapped. For example, how a technological breakthrough changes the balance of political power. Or how the climate crisis impacts economic models. These things can't be determined from a set of individual megatrends. 

Are trends outmoded then?

Joschka Proksik: I see trends more as short-term indicators. They often only show what is going on in the moment. The GDI Major Shifts reveal where developments are actually heading, which paradigm is shifting and what implications this may have for other areas too. Anyone analysing the shifts will soon spot conflicting priorities and synergies.

Can you provide an example of interaction between shifts?

Joschka Proksik: If the economic climate and technological progress enable the switch to clean energy and circular production, this will have a direct impact on climate change, resource availability or water stress. Such positive knock-on effects can strengthen or weaken other shifts. This growing interaction between shifts represents a profound change in itself which is described in the major shifts 'hyperconnectivity' and 'polycrisis', the latter showing the negative forms of such knock-on effects.

Which shifts are of particular relevance right now?

Joschka Proksik: All of them actually (he laughs). But clearly there are phases during which specific issues have a particularly strong influence over present events. At the moment, geopolitics is a prime example. We are currently going through a phase of transition to a multipolar, international system, currently dominated by two major powers, but that's still being influenced by other independent actors. This is upending the rules of the game in global politics and the economy. Centres of power are shifting, new alliances are being forged and old orders are being rocked to their core - this creates uncertainty, but also fresh dynamism.

Another good example is the shift of 'water stress'. While the growing scarcity and unequal distribution of water resources is nothing new, it is becoming an ever more urgent issue. Water is becoming a contested resource globally and is already giving rise to new tensions, most recently around the Indus water system between India and Pakistan and around the Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia. Even in regions long considered stable, water shortages are arising. This phenomenon is being seen in Europe too where droughts are causing ever greater damage, especially in the Mediterranean region. 

And what about AI?

Joschka Proksik: The 'infrastructuralisation of AI' represents a major shift that is increasingly changing our world, as AI is having an ever more far-reaching impact on key areas of life – from urban infrastructure, medical technology and agriculture to machine-based production and modern security and military technologies. This explains why AI is having such a profound impact on various other major shifts too. The technological upheaval is reflected by the 'automated media systems' shift in particular, for example. AI-based systems are increasingly determining what we see, talk about and ultimately how we make decisions. Our next European Trend Day at the GDI will also focus on this topic where we will explore how we can reclaim our focus amidst the deluge of information and regain people's attention by creating relevant content. 

How do you translate these shifts for companies?

Joschka Proksik: Working closely with the GDI's Strategic Foresight Team, we identify which shifts are of particular relevance to the industry and strategic environment of the company concerned. We provide an external perspective to detect any blind spots. We then determine the effects of the individual shifts, which forces may drive them on or weaken them in future and how they will affect the specific company. This allows us to create flexible future scenarios as part of the foresight process which specifically define the decision-making context for a company.

What fascinates you most about working on the GDI Major Shifts?

Joschka Proksik: The incredibly wide range of topics covered by the framework's integral approach. It is very satisfying when our expectations are confirmed. Based on our empirical observations, we often identify certain links and interactions between the shifts and challenges facing the economy and companies and can then see how events actually play out. Each time, this confirms our framework's analytical viability and practical applicability.