This is an excerpt from the GDI study "A New World of Energy - From Scarcity to Abundance". The complete study is available as free download.
The fundamental transformation of the energy system will not happen from one day to the next, nor will it be smooth or subtle. It will involve steps, jumps and breaks that will affect everyone involved. Each development will be a shift, changing the way in which we produce and consume energy. The trend landscape identifies and analyses important social, technological, economical, ecological and political developments that could shape the energy system of the future. Each development constitutes a shift: if it takes place, it will change the way in which we produce and consume energy. The trend landscape shows as a type of radar the thematic latitude and the most important fields of development that will impact our energy system.trend_landscape_energy.pdf
The shifts examined here vary in probability and impact, which is reflected in the choice of coordinates used in the trend landscape: the x-axis represents the probability that a shift will occur. It also represents time: certain shifts will take place tomorrow, while others are still far in the future. The y-axis represents the impact a shift will have on entry into the energy system. Our illustration constitutes a current survey. Due to the dynamic development of the entire energy system, the landscape will inevitably change over the years. Certain shifts will move upwards or to the left, others are eliminated and others are added.
Read more about the future of energy in the GDI study "A New World of Energy - From Scarcity to Abundance".
From Scarcity to Abundance
Authors: Stefan Breit, Venkatesh Rao, Detlef Gürtler
Languages: German, English
Commissioned by: Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE